{
"source": "posts.csv and pages/w1/*.posts.html.gz; wave one, 2026-09-09",
"rule": "a channel enters a comparison only with at least 3 posts of each kind; ratio = median views of the first kind / median views of the second, inside the same channel",
"posts": 5166,
"channels": 325,
"media_vs_text_all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 146,
"summary": {
"n": 146,
"p10": 0.7462,
"p25": 0.9238,
"median": 1.0339,
"p75": 1.1346,
"p90": 1.4084
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5959,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6986,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0959,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0616,
"note": "reproduces stats.json media_vs_text_within_channel (146 channels, median 1.0339)"
},
"text_posts_with_unsupported_attachment": {
"what_it_is": "has_media=0 posts whose stored preview HTML contains message_media_not_supported; the preview shows an attachment placeholder, not text alone",
"posts": 287,
"of_text_posts": 1538,
"channels_with_any": 100,
"media_vs_text_with_them_dropped": {
"channels_compared": 104,
"summary": {
"n": 104,
"p10": 0.7593,
"p25": 0.9176,
"median": 1.0315,
"p75": 1.2056,
"p90": 1.3552
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5865,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6731,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0673,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0673
},
"media_vs_text_with_them_counted_as_media": {
"channels_compared": 106,
"summary": {
"n": 106,
"p10": 0.7667,
"p25": 0.9174,
"median": 1.0272,
"p75": 1.2061,
"p90": 1.4276
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5472,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6604,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0755,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.066
}
},
"media_vs_text_posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 108,
"summary": {
"n": 108,
"p10": 0.7068,
"p25": 0.9181,
"median": 1.0346,
"p75": 1.1287,
"p90": 1.3242
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5833,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.7037,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0648,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0833
},
"age_of_media_over_age_of_text_within_channel": {
"n": 146,
"p10": 0.7585,
"p25": 0.9239,
"median": 1.032,
"p75": 1.3075,
"p90": 2.2976
},
"media_vs_text_by_size_band": {
"large (50k+)": {
"all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 44,
"summary": {
"n": 44,
"p10": 0.7296,
"p25": 0.9288,
"median": 1.0588,
"p75": 1.1241,
"p90": 1.196
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.6136,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.7727,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0455,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0455
},
"posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 22,
"summary": {
"n": 22,
"p10": 0.6925,
"p25": 0.8191,
"median": 1.0278,
"p75": 1.1129,
"p90": 1.1615
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5909,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6818,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0909
}
},
"mid (1k-50k)": {
"all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 44,
"summary": {
"n": 44,
"p10": 0.8313,
"p25": 0.9187,
"median": 1.0389,
"p75": 1.2124,
"p90": 1.7464
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5909,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6818,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.1591,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0455
},
"posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 30,
"summary": {
"n": 30,
"p10": 0.8585,
"p25": 0.9577,
"median": 1.0616,
"p75": 1.1958,
"p90": 1.3704
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.6667,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.7333,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0667,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0667
}
},
"small (<1k)": {
"all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 58,
"summary": {
"n": 58,
"p10": 0.7476,
"p25": 0.9615,
"median": 1.0301,
"p75": 1.1716,
"p90": 1.3712
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5862,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6552,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0862,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0862
},
"posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 56,
"summary": {
"n": 56,
"p10": 0.7441,
"p25": 0.9212,
"median": 1.0165,
"p75": 1.1228,
"p90": 1.3301
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5357,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6964,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0893,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0893
}
}
},
"media_kind_vs_text": {
"photo": {
"posts": 2621,
"vs_text_all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 124,
"summary": {
"n": 124,
"p10": 0.7239,
"p25": 0.9375,
"median": 1.0499,
"p75": 1.1585,
"p90": 1.3556
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.629,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6935,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0887,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0726
},
"vs_text_posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 86,
"summary": {
"n": 86,
"p10": 0.667,
"p25": 0.9113,
"median": 1.0403,
"p75": 1.144,
"p90": 1.3287
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.6047,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.686,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0581,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.1047
}
},
"video": {
"posts": 798,
"vs_text_all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 52,
"summary": {
"n": 52,
"p10": 0.7272,
"p25": 0.9143,
"median": 1.0398,
"p75": 1.1438,
"p90": 1.5768
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.5577,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6346,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.1154,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0769
},
"vs_text_posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 35,
"summary": {
"n": 35,
"p10": 0.7284,
"p25": 0.8792,
"median": 1.0412,
"p75": 1.2113,
"p90": 1.6482
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.6,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.1143,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0857
}
},
"other": {
"posts": 209,
"vs_text_all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 23,
"summary": {
"n": 23,
"p10": 0.9025,
"p25": 0.963,
"median": 1.0473,
"p75": 1.2178,
"p90": 1.6521
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.6087,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.6522,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.1739,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0435
},
"vs_text_posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 14,
"summary": {
"n": 14,
"p10": 0.9302,
"p25": 0.9993,
"median": 1.0533,
"p75": 1.2432,
"p90": 1.4914
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.7143,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.7143,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.1429,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.0
}
},
"note": "photo = a photo marker and no video marker; video = video or round video; other = document, voice, audio, sticker, poll, location. An album with any video counts as video.",
"text_posts": 1538
},
"forwarded_in_vs_original": {
"note": "is_forward = forwarded INTO this channel from elsewhere. The source cannot see how often a channel's own posts were forwarded outward.",
"channels_with_any_forward": 87,
"all_ages": {
"channels_compared": 37,
"summary": {
"n": 37,
"p10": 0.553,
"p25": 0.6911,
"median": 0.848,
"p75": 1.0231,
"p90": 1.1769
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.2703,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.4865,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0541,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.2162
},
"posts_48h_or_older": {
"channels_compared": 21,
"summary": {
"n": 21,
"p10": 0.5963,
"p25": 0.6622,
"median": 0.9031,
"p75": 1.0559,
"p90": 1.1183
},
"share_where_first_group_did_better": 0.3333,
"share_within_25pct_either_way": 0.4286,
"share_first_group_at_least_1_5x": 0.0,
"share_first_group_at_most_two_thirds": 0.2857
}
},
"shuffle_check_media_vs_text_all_ages": {
"what_it_is": "labels shuffled inside each channel 200 times (seed 20261008), keeping each channel's count of each kind. The figures are the median, across shuffles, of each summary statistic.",
"median_of_shuffled_p25": 0.883,
"median_of_shuffled_median": 1.0,
"median_of_shuffled_p75": 1.127,
"median_of_shuffled_share_over_1": 0.4863,
"channels_outside_their_own_middle_90pct": 19,
"channels_tested": 146,
"share_outside": 0.1301,
"share_expected_by_chance": 0.1
},
"why_pooled_differs": {
"by_size_band": {
"large (50k+)": {
"posts": 1553,
"share_with_media": 0.7991,
"pooled_median_ratio_media": 0.0333,
"pooled_median_ratio_text": 0.0352
},
"mid (1k-50k)": {
"posts": 1585,
"share_with_media": 0.6719,
"pooled_median_ratio_media": 0.0909,
"pooled_median_ratio_text": 0.153
},
"small (<1k)": {
"posts": 2028,
"share_with_media": 0.6519,
"pooled_median_ratio_media": 0.7112,
"pooled_median_ratio_text": 0.8174
}
},
"share_of_text_posts_from_small_channels": 0.459,
"share_of_media_posts_from_small_channels": 0.3644,
"median_subscribers_behind_a_media_post": 6200,
"median_subscribers_behind_a_text_post": 1035,
"spearman_channel_media_share_vs_channel_median_ratio": -0.2165,
"channels_all_media": 86,
"channels_no_media": 14
}
}